Guessing at Sex

Something’s happened. Something both miraculous and mundane. Over the past few months I’ve been transformed from a woman into an incubator. A walking, talking (and often eating and napping) incubator programmed to provide the perfect environment for a growing baby . . . something. We’ll find out the gender in a couple weeks. Still, it’s always the first question people ask when they hear that I’m pregnant: “Is it a boy or a girl?” And since we haven’t had an answer for them, my husband and I have been showered with an astonishing number of guesses. It seems that everyone we’ve ever met is secretly a gender-divining expert.

They all have their methods. One woman had me turn around so she could size up my back fat. “If you gain weight in the back, it means you’re having a boy,” she explained. Another examined my face as she explained her theory that women who carry a girl look more beautiful (thanks to the added female hormones) while those carrying a boy start looking more, well, dude-like. Others have sworn by the shape of the belly – if the stomach looks pointed versus broad. One acquaintance asked for the baby’s fetal heart rate, saying that babies with faster heart rates always turn out to be girls. Another friend described her theory that the mother’s personality predicts the baby’s sex; apparently, soft-spoken mothers tend to have boys.

I like when people guess the gender. It’s interesting to hear their varied theories and sweet to think that they’re excited enough about our pregnancy to venture a guess. It makes a personal, biological experience more communal. But I can’t say much for their accuracy. So far, the guesses have been evenly split between boy and girl.

That’s the thing about guessing gender; with a 50-50 chance of either outcome, it’s unimpressive if you’re right and even more unimpressive if you’re wrong. And yet with such odds, it’s only natural that people start thinking they’ve hit on a good heuristic. No matter how wrong your method, you will, on average, be right 50% of the time. That already subjectively feels like a lot of rightness. If you try your method out on a small number of people to start, you could wind up with a lower success rate (by chance) and perhaps abandon your technique, but you might luck out and guess right 75% of the time or higher, at least for a little while. Someone who starts out on a lucky streak may well become a diehard believer who swears by his method, even after his batting average declines.

There’s simply no way that so many people can be so sure of their gender-guessing strategies unless they pick and choose their outcomes. Or unless, as I suspect, their memories do it for them. Consider the conundrum of the grocery store line. Many of us believe we are cursed (or mysteriously inept) at choosing a checkout lane at the grocery store. No matter which line we wind up in, it turns out to be the slowest. If we switch to another, that one mysteriously slows down. You rarely hear about the reverse – people who claim to have a special gift for picking the fastest lane. How can the majority of people be below average at the same task? If their memories are skewing the results. We never notice and remember the times we breeze right through checkout or overtake our neighbors in the next line over. The salient events – and the ones we’ll remember – are the times we’ve been stuck behind someone arguing prices or heaping coupons on the counter. Times when six people go by in the next line over while your food wilts and thaws on the conveyor belt.

It must be the same with guessing gender. When people are right, they are ecstatic and vindicated. When they are wrong, they notice and remember it less. And those that do notice their error may wonder if they misjudged the belly shape or back fat. The problem wasn’t necessarily with the heuristic, but rather with its execution. If only the pregnant lady’s dress had been tighter or if the guesser hadn’t been distracted by hors d’oeuvres, the method would certainly have worked!

I am by no means immune to these twisted ways of thinking. I can’t help but believe that I’m cursed at picking grocery lines. And I also seem to have a guess about this baby’s gender. For no apparent reason, I have it in my head that the baby is a boy. No heuristic here, just a feeling I can’t seem to shake. It’s not that I’d prefer a boy – I’d be equally delighted to have a girl. And I know that there’s no scientific merit to the inkling. Even if a woman could tune into some subtle something in her body and know, she’d need prior experience to compare it to. This being my first pregnancy, I have no idea what it might feel like to carry a boy versus a girl, if such a thing were even possible. So I should put no stock in such a feeling.

And yet when the ultrasound rolls around, I know I’ll be surprised if we learn that the baby’s a girl. Equally happy and excited, to be sure. But most definitely (and illogically) surprised.

Who Am I Again?

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Thanks to a recent kerfuffle over the Earth’s precession and its effect on our astrological signs, many people have spent this week questioning their personality traits. I went from being a life-long Gemini (changeable, duplicitous) to a possible Taurus (stubborn, steady), neither of which I think describe me. I’ve never believed in astrological signs, but many people do, and this week must have been a confusing one for them.

The whole thing got me thinking about how we look outward for explanations and definitions of our inner selves. No one has a better vantage point than we do to observe our own personal thoughts, feelings, attitudes, and behaviors. How funny that we once looked to the stars in order to understand ourselves! Those of us who consider ourselves scientific and modern are no better. Although we scoff at sun signs and palm readings, increasingly we are turning to our brains and our DNA for answers that they simply can’t give.

In the 1800’s, the Phrenological Fowlers (later Fowlers and Wells) founded a nationwide industry on reading people’s personalities based on the bumps on their heads. They published extensively and sent emissaries to small towns throughout the U.S. so that, for a small fee, the masses might come to know themselves better. The company and its methods were an unrivaled success. America was obsessed with phrenology. Sometime in the 1860’s, a curious Mark Twain visited Fowler’s office under an assumed name. Fowler read his head and said that his skull dipped in at a particular point where it should have bulged out – a sure sign that Twain, the preeminent American humorist, utterly lacked a sense of humor.

Nowadays, many still look to their brains for answers. When I used to scan participants in fMRI experiments, they would often ask what I could tell them about their brains. I couldn’t tell them anything; all the analysis took place later, back at the lab. But as a frequent subject in pilot experiments for my own and colleagues’ studies, I’ve had unfettered access to data from my own brain. I know that I have a large and robust fusiform face area (a region thought to be critical for face recognition) and a rather dinky visual word form area (implicated in identifying letters of the alphabet.) What does that mean, when I am an avid reader and often embarrass myself with my poor ability to recognize faces?

While people still look to the stars and to brains (if not skulls) in order to understand themselves, the next big thing has arrived. The age of personal genomics is upon us and countless startups out there are eager to swap a check and a swab of our cells for a glimpse into our futures and ourselves. I have to admit, I fantasize sometimes about having my genome read. I would love the chance to pour through details about my ancestral line or learn what type of diseases I am predisposed to developing. But the biggest draw is to learn about myself. What forms of the anxiety genes do I have? What about genes linked to mental illness, intelligence, novelty-seeking? As a scientist, I know that complex traits are determined by a mixture of environment and numerous genes, many of which we haven’t yet discovered. Beyond that, epigenetic factors influence the expression of our genes in ways we don’t yet understand. Yet I still find myself wishing someone would hand me that printout with the secrets to myself.

The cognitive scientist Steven Pinker wrote a wonderful essay wading through his results when his own genome was sequenced. In it, he struggles with the discrepancies. His genome says he should be sensitive to bitter flavors, yet he enjoys beer, broccoli, and brussels sprouts. His genome says he has a high risk of baldness, yet he is known for his thick mane of overflowing, curly hair. Other results he believes or would like to believe. What is a person seeking direction and self-wisdom to do?

So at the end of this astrologically confusing week, I find myself at a loss. Why do we crave external guidance to help us understand our internal selves? It may be because we are less static and more changeable than we like to believe. As I alluded to in my post about our potential to do evil, psychology experiments (and history) have shown that human beings are heavily influenced by their circumstances. Because we are adaptable, we behave very differently depending on who we are with and what we are doing. Although the adaptability may be advantageous, I suspect it unsettles us. We want to believe we have a solid, stable identity, and we will look to mystics or scientists – anyone who can give us that assurance. I know who I am and who I always will be.

The hard (but in its own way beautiful) truth is that we are each a complex and contradictory landscape of traits, behaviors, and passions. Be wary of those who try to describe you with a handful of paltry adjectives. Know thyself. Or keep trying, anyway. It should take at least a lifetime.

Me, You, and Lucifer

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Are we all capable of doing truly evil things? This was a question posed by my latest nonfiction read, The Lucifer Effect. The author, Philip Zimbardo, is the psychologist who created the infamous Stanford Prison Experiment in 1971.

For his prison experiment, Zimbardo randomly assigned young college men to play the roles of prisoners or guards in a mock prison set up in the basement of the Stanford Psychology building. The study took place in an era of anti-war protests, when college students were being arrested and thrown into jail. Zimbardo conceived the experiment with the purpose of examining the prisoners’ mentalities and their attempts to organize and rebel. However ultimately, the most fascinating aspect of the experiment was the behavior of the subjects who played guards. Well-behaved, emotionally stable college boys became cruel guards. They inflicted shocking degradations on the prisoners, causing more than one of their detainees to suffer an emotional breakdown.

This unethical but fascinating experiment, and the other psychology studies and world events that Zimbardo chronicles in his book, demonstrate how we are all actors. We conform easily to the roles in which we are cast, even if these roles involve harming others or allowing others to harm us. And yet we cling to the concept of our unique and personal identity, particularly in Western cultures where individualism is highly prized.

This human failing, our malleability to fit social norms, is a consequence of one of our greatest attributes, our resourcefulness. We have evolved to be successful in complex environments and to tailor our behavior to the people and circumstances that surround us. Think about how you behave when you attend a party where you know no one compared with a night out with your oldest friends. Think of how you conduct yourself at a job interview, at a sporting event, babysitting a child, or when you’re alone. We manage to be very different people from moment to moment. We have to be; our complex social world demands it. So why is it so hard to imagine that, when plunged into an extreme role under extreme circumstances, we might do something we’d never think we’re capable of? Something truly inhumane?

In his book, Zimbardo argues that the suicide bombers of modern religious extremism, the torturers in the Abu Ghraib prison, and the executioners of the Holocaust were normal people subjected to extreme pressures and circumstances. There is a long history of psychology experiments, including Zimbardo’s study and the infamous Milgram experiments, that demonstrate how stable, well-meaning Americans will commit terrible acts when influenced by authority or anonymity. And past events have shown time and again that we are capable of standing by rather than intervening to help those in need. The case of Kitty Genovese is a dramatic example of this common occurrence, the basis for the so-called bystander effect. Zimbardo calls it the evil of inaction. But should it come as a surprise? Doesn’t society teach us to mind our own business?

These questions about complicity and inaction reminded me of a night from my childhood. I was seven years old when my parents first took me to the Chicago Symphony Orchestra. I remember how people with shiny shoes, lush coats, and clutch purses poured in from nearby parking structures to gather outside Orchestra Hall. Amid the symphony goers, I noticed a crumpled man sitting on the ground with his head resting on his knees. I remember that his jacket was far too thin for the biting cold and that the plastic cup by his feet was empty. All of the well-dressed concert goers swept past him, including us. I felt ill throughout the first half of the performance, knowing I could have asked my parents for money and given him a dollar or two. I worried that he’d starve to death because I hadn’t done anything to help him. At intermission, I dragged my parents out to the sidewalk, but by then the man was gone.

As an adult, I’ve lived in big cities and have become accustomed to sharing sidewalks and street corners with the homeless. People could not function in urban settings if they became as paralyzed by the sight of suffering as my seven-year-old self was. In the case of homelessness, it’s hard to know what to do or how to help; giving money to people on the street is not necessarily the best thing. But I do think our reaction to homelessness offers clues to how experience and social norms allow us to ignore or overlook suffering. To live and function in a city, we have to curb our empathy and compassion. Even if we aren’t cruel, even if we mean well, we manage to turn off our humanity on a daily basis. And the fact that we can turn it off a little should serve as a reminder that we all have the capability to turn it off a lot.

There are things we can do to help address the problem of homelessness, such as volunteering or donating money to a local homeless shelter. Charitable donations and philanthropic acts improve our world and reduce suffering, of course, and we should do both – as often as we can. But we should also remember that good deeds don’t change our capacity for evil. The best way to prevent ourselves from being cruel or complicit in cruelty is to believe that we are capable of it. If we remember that we are susceptible to the pressures of authority, group norms, and social roles, we can be vigilant. We can stop ourselves. We can speak up. We can act.

Recommendation and Regret

I couldn’t sleep last night and it was all Lowboy’s fault.

I was reading the novel Lowboy by John Wray. Click here for its review in the New York Times.

The book is about a 16-year old boy with schizophrenia on the run in the New York subway system. It’s a fantastic read – fast-paced yet poetic, and short enough to consume in a few days.

One of the interesting footnotes about this book is that the author wrote most of it on the NY subway line while listening to heavy metal guitar. Another is that he did a unique (albeit slightly awkward) reading from the book to other passengers on the train. Here’s a great interview of the author in a recent NPR podcast.

So that was my recommendation. Now for the regret.

The driving force of the novel is the threat of violence. The main character of the novel, Will Heller (a.k.a. Lowboy), has nearly killed someone before, has attacked others, and is now unmedicated and on the loose in public. I enjoyed the book immensely, but I couldn’t help feeling sad that it reinforced the public misconception that people with schizophrenia are violent.

This is not a criticism of the book; literature isn’t and shouldn’t be a public service announcement. A doctor in the novel even mentions that most patients with schizophrenia aren’t violent. Still, the young patient in this story is transformed into a terrifying figure.

Groups like NAMI and NIMH need to continue educating people about mental illness. The public needs to know that most people with schizophrenia aren’t violent and most violent people don’t have schizophrenia.

If patients are going to find treatment and recover, they’ll need the support of people in their lives. They will need our kindness, not our fear.

Where’s My Real Wife?

I recently read the novel Atmospheric Disturbances, written by Rivka Galchen (a trained psychiatrist). It begins when the main character wakes to find that his wife is a fraud. She looks exactly like his wife and shares her voice and mannerisms, but there’s no question that the woman in his house is an impostor.

Although the term’s never used, the main character is suffering from Capgras Syndrome. Capgras is one of those rare neurological conditions that sounds like science fiction to those of us who are more or less neurologically intact. It’s perhaps one of few syndromes intriguing enough to fuel an entire novel. (Two, in fact; it was the basis for the novel The Echomaker as well.)

One theory is that Capgras happens when regions of the brain linked to emotion are damaged or disconnected from visual/face recognition areas. That’s oversimplified, but the point is that our emotions are inextricably woven into our perceptions of other people. The feeling of love for a spouse or parent or sibling or child is so integral to our experience of that person that in its absence, despite every scrap of evidence to the contrary, we can’t believe the person is the same. I can’t help but find this both facinating and surprisingly romantic.

Atmospheric Disturbances wasn’t my favorite read overall, but I admire the creative risks it took. It lived up to the term “novel.” For one, Galchen included her actual father as a prominent character and his research in meteorology as a motif throughout the book. There’s even a family photo; she was a cute kid.

Here’s a brief interview with the author about the book and her interest in the topic: